Why Harold Baines Shouldn't Make the Baseball Hall of Fame

Argument For

Baines obviously has some reasonably good lifetime numbers, including 2783 hits and 1583 RBI, going into the 2000 season. He made 6 all-star games which is a reasonable total. He's played in 21 seasons including 2000 and hit .300 in a season of 100 games 8 times, which is a decent number. He was a pretty good contact hitter, only striking out 100 times in a season once.

I wish I could come up with some more good arguments here... but there really aren't any.

Argument Against

The basic argument against Baines is that he's never really been a dominant player. He has some okay career totals, but when you look at his seasons individually, none really stand out. The only stat he ever led the league in was slugging average, with .541 in 1984 (and he ended up tying for 13th in the MVP vote, with 10 points). He never hit 30 HR in a year (29 in 1984 and 25 in 1982 and 1999 were his highs), which is mediocre for a DH. He had only 3 100 RBI seasons and no 100 run seasons. His baserunning was fairly bad (50% SB rate going into 2000, and 290 GDP). While his batting average is reasonably good (.292 heading into 2000), his OBP of .358 and SA of .469 are not that much above average.

To take the argument to an extreme, imagine a player that played 25 years and hit 20 HR a year. This would give him 500 career HR, but this doesn't make him a great player, especially if he was a first baseman in the American League. It does seem that players are playing longer these days -- we will need to reevaluate career totals with respect to having longer careers. Take Pete Rose for instance, he played in the most games and had the most at bats of any major league player... he SHOULD have the most hits of any player, and if he didn't, it would be a negative.

I was just listening to the ESPN "Game Night" radio show (July 2, 2000). The announcers, I forget who, were making an argument for Baines for the Hall. One of them claimed, "Baines is *such* a great hitter." I'm just not convinced of this. His career TA is only .777, and look at his BEST seasons: .304/29/94 with a Total Average of .880, in 1984, or maybe .309/22/113, with a TA of only .733, in 1985 or perhaps .312/25/103 with a TA of .898, in 1999 (admittedly a very impressive season, at 40). But the reality is that these would be just average seasons for the real Hall of Famers of our generation. He's not even in the top 25 active players for average, OBA or slugging average.

I hope this isn't sounding like a rant yet... but to continue, the guy hasn't even had 500 ABs in a year since the 80s! (Okay, since 1989, and he did come close with 495 AB in 1996... but still.) His career TA heading in 2000 is just .777. He never had 90 runs in a season... never had 30 homers...never had 40 doubles... never 75 walks... just one .400 OBA season. Let's take his BEST single season numbers in every category: 640 AB, 198 H, 39 DB, 10 3B, 29 HR, 308 TB, 89 R, 113 RBI, 73 BB, 10 SB, .313 AVG, .403 OBA, .541 SLG. Please... do not tell me these are worthy of the Hall.

Keltner List

  1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? It's safe to say Baines was never considered the best player in baseball.
  2. Was he the best player on his team? I'd say Carlton Fisk was the best player on that White Sox team that won the division in 1983, not Baines, but Baines was definitely the best hitter on his team at that time.
  3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? Baines certainly wasn't the best AL outfielder in his prime (early to mid 80s). I'd certainly take Winfield, Henderson and Rice above him. Tony Armas had some good years in there and Dwight Evans is up there too. If you look at the National League as well, he'd definitely be behind Dale Murphy, Tim Raines and Tony Gwynn, at the minimum. Plus, Darryl Strawberry was a much better player during the 1980s.
  4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Baines made the playoffs 5 years, 1983, 1990, 1992, 1997 and 1999. In 1983, the Sox won by 20 games and then lost the ALCS, so it's hard to say much about his impact there. Obviously no OF is worth 20 wins, however he had a good year with 20 HR and 99 RBI. In 1990 he was acquired by the A's in a late-season trade with the Rangers. He had just 94 at bats and they ended up losing the World Series to the Reds. In 1992 he was a regular with the A's. He hit that game-winning home run in the 9th inning in game 1 of the ALCS off Jack Morris of the Blue Jays, but the A's ended up losing that series. In 1997 and 1999 he was a rent-a-player for the Orioles and Indians, respectively. Both of those teams ended up losing. He definitely deserves some credit for being well-respected enough to be picked up three times mid-season by playoff teams.
  5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? He was definitely a good enough player to play past his prime, in fact he had probably his second or third best season at the age of 40.
  6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? He's obviously not the very best player in history not in the Hall, this doesn't even need explaining.
  7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? His stats are well below average for a Hall of Famer. He scores at exactly 3 on the Black Ink Test (he led the AL in 1984 for the Chicago White Sox with a slugging average of .541) which is terrible for an OF-DH.
  8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Baines scores a 39 on the Hall of Fame standards test (average Hall of Famers score a 50). Using the standard for active players, or Career Monitor, he gets a 57 (100 is typical for weaker Hall of Fame candidate). These two numbers peg him as a borderline candidate, at best.
  9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? Not better or worse than the statistics.
  10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? No player who was primarily a DH has been elected to the Hall of Fame yet. Rafael Palmeiro would be a better candidate. Edgar Martinez is a much better hitter, although in a much shorter career.
  11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? He never won an MVP award. Never really came close. (A major point against.)
  12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame? He played in 6 All-Star games.
  13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? I'm a bit doubtful that a team whose best player was Harold Baines would win the pennant. He was a rent-a-player for the 1990, 1997 and 1999 division winners, not a season-long starter. The 1983 team was kind of a team of destiny (they won 25 games less the next year with virtually the same lineup, except the addition of a 15-11 Tom Seaver and no major injuries), with great pitching from LaMarr Hoyt and Rich Dotson and very good seasons from Fisk, Kittle and Luzinski as well as Baines. On the 1992 team there were several better players (Rickey Henderson, Canseco, McGwire and Eckersley at the minimum).
  14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? I think Baines and Chili Davis defined a position of being an ageless DH who kind of drifted around the AL putting up reasonably good numbers. I don't think this is really central to a Hall of Fame argument but he did help to define a type of player, at least in my mind.
  15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? Baines is and has been a solid citizen.

Decision

I don't think Baines should make it. Nothing personal, of course, it's just that while watching him play or looking at his stats he just doesn't seem like a Hall of Famer. If he were a catcher or a shortstop he might have the offensive numbers, but when you consider he was a DH for most of his career, he just doesn't compare well with the best players of his era. That he'll end up with over 2800 hits pretty much serves to illustrate the fallacy of "automatic" totals by which a player makes the Hall. Bill James says the Hall of Fame process should be decided not by one or two facts but by the weight of the evidence... it has got to be against Harold Baines making the Hall.